What is causation and causality?
What causes you a pain in the neck or backside is important. So ’cause’, ‘causation’ and ‘causality’ should be important to everybody! But these words don’t mean exactly the same thing, though they sit in relation to each other. Who said this? I did! And you bet – I see these concepts pretty differently to anybody else, but some of my thinking is shared by a minority of others. Sure – I’ve read up on the stuff. But I’m not a regurgitator. I’m not just one of those people who pick things off the net and go, “Well Professor Blogs says – so there!“.
As some people will have a hard time working out where this is going, the clickable flow chart below gives an outline. At the end I confront predictability and preventability. This post became stimulated by tragic events earlier in 2020, when a child was stabbed in a park.
I see cause as a deep and close influence of one thing on another. The simplest example is one billiard white ball striking another red ball and ‘causing’ the red one to move. Within that system of two balls, the white ball is the cause of red’s movement. It seems obvious and simple, but there are some hidden assumptions in there. Huh! I’ve assumed that there was not another unobserved force that also moved red along e.g. somebody tilting the whole room containing the table, or a puff of air from somewhere. Those might be co-incident causes if they existed. But note that the original conclusion devoid of any other influences, was that white caused red to move. But to be truly able to say with confidence ‘white moved red’, I should have ruled out coincident effects. Of course, life is not like that – you see it happen and you don’t have time to set up a laboratory to check for other coincident causes. The system on a billiard table is simple so no hard work required. But when one is dealing with a more complex system coincident effects need to be searched for an ruled out. Stepping out of the constraint of the two balls as a system, I also need to know that there was no external effect affecting both balls at the same time. In more complex systems or those that may be interrelated, the appearance of cause could just be correlation or association. In the latter one ‘object’ isn’t truly influencing the other. But an even deeper assumption was made – that the red ball moved after it was struck by white. Yes – that simple temporal sequence is important in determining cause.
This is the study or constituents of cause. Some of that appeared above. Causation may be differently conceptualised in law and in physics, though there may be many shared constituents. Yes – the law operates a bit differently from physics.
This is a far deeper set of concepts from the above two. It digs deep into the fabric of space, time and mathematical constructions of the universe. But if you’re a simpleton, you simply jump on Wikipedia and find that they say the three things are basically the same. Hey – I’m not here to tell people what to believe or how close to reality they should get. If people want life ‘simple’ – that’s totally fine.
I’m sure somebody out there wants a list of causes or categories of causes. I couldn’t care less. Two ways of thinking about cause that are useful to me, are what’s referred to as ‘linear causality‘ and ‘non-linear causality‘. To avoid confusion, the people who wrote and thought about these things took ‘causality’ to be both ’cause’ and ‘causation’. So I’ll run with that for the moment. [But for absolute clarity I don’t see causality as simple ’cause’ or ‘causation’]
This is pretty easy. It’s like with the billiard balls and one player poking one ball at a time.
This is complex – like having several players poking at hundreds of balls on a massive billiard table at the same times or different groups of them taking turns at the same time. Some of the players decide to have a punch up on or at the side of the table too. All that is called chaos. Many balls will drop into holes for sure – but working out which player or players were responsible is near impossible, though clearly there is emergence of effect (balls dropping into holes). Yes – each player who hits a ball is responsible for some degree of linear causality. But what they final outcome of his ‘contribution’ would be is pretty impossible to work out.
Where do we commonly find non-linear causality? Right under your nose! Yes – you the human being – the human body – it’s physiology, biochemistry and neurology – are all in a non-linear state of chaos. Oh yes – but we do find emergent order out of all that. The electrical impulses generated by zillions of neurons firing in the brain all at once with numerous faciliatory and inhibitory pathways – with zillions of chemical reactions going on at every level – all produce an emergent thing called thought – or speech – or action.
And right under your nose could be an ugly virus like COVID-19. How was it created? How did it evolve? All that is the emergence of numerous iterations of non-linear causal interactions. How does it spread? You’re a simpleton if you think that it’s just about somebody inhaling a few virus particles from the person across the room sneezing into the room i.e. you’re hooked on linear causality.
An example of how non-linearity may operate is shown below. This is not advice and ought not to be used in any similar case. (No liabilities accepted). It does not refer to the case that stimulated this post or any other.
Action and Inaction
If one looks at linear and non-linear causality, nested in there is ‘action‘ i.e. balls being struck, which then hit other balls etc. In complex scenarios usually in the human domain, what’s not often seen easily is ‘inaction‘ or omission. This is about failure to act. The issue comes up regularly in mental health homicide and suicide inquiries and court proceedings e.g.
- failure to assess properly
- failure to medicate properly
- failure to monitor and supervise properly
- failure to detain when necessary
- failures of communication and coordination
- failures of risk control
There is of course a longer list. All of the above meant that actions which should have been taken (properly), were not. So the absence of action, then becomes a visible and tangible ingredient in a causal analysis. This is where the concept of legal causation comes in because it rests within the concept of negligence as a legal concept (not mere carelessness as a lay concept).
Negligence in law – a tort – is comprised of four main things (among many other important issues):
- Duty of care
- Breach of duty of care.
- Claimant’s loss was caused by the breach of duty
- The loss fell within the defendant’s scope of duty and was a foreseeable consequence of the breach of duty.
This is not a tutorial on negligence. The main point here is ‘failure to discharge a duty’ i.e. a failure to perform a duty. So this is how legal causation differs quite significantly from causation in science and mathematics.
Out of the duty of care, would have been a range of ‘actions’ designed to control risk or adverse consequences. Nobody is saying that these have to be perfect. The carrying out of the actions arising from duty, means that the probability of a bad outcome is reduced – that’s why these actions are needed. But now, we see that the failure to act then becomes causative – it takes on a salience and importance that cannot be avoided (except by the most ignorant of people, obviously).
Predictability and preventability
I have always asserted that nothing in this world is predictable. That seems like a bold statement to make when every day people predict that the sun will rise in the East or that ‘Winter is coming’. The idea that something is predictable, is based on a belief – likened to the billiard balls on a table – that if you get the angle and force right on the shot you can get the second ball into the hole. This is linear causality. But even on a billiards table – there are subtle imperfections and variations that add to non-linearity, and that’s what leads to variations. A slight unseen glitch in the chalk on a tip of a cue can lead to a sequence where the second ball misses the hole.
What people often take as ‘predictable’ is really probability. Well established patterns make for sense of predictability. However, that is really about probability of outcome. So winter happening every year has a high probability based on well established patterns. Nobody really cares if I predicted that ‘Winter is coming 5 years from now’ – it’s so well known a pattern.
If however, I say person X has a high probability of sticking a knife into somebody within the next 5 years, now that becomes interesting. But that’s not a prediction at all, even if a knife does end up in somebody somewhere along the way to 5 years. The idea of predictability is really about how well human beings appreciate the probability of an outcome.
Now because there will be problems with ‘prediction’ in complex scenarios, the issue is whether an outcome can be prevented. The short answer is yes. But before that the question ‘Can something be prevented?‘, leads to a binary answer i.e. ‘yes’ or ‘no’. In non-linear scenarios where there are probabilities the answer is more about the impact of actions taken to prevent. Locking up the potentially knife wielding person for life in a high security prison, contains the risk and prevents knives being stuck into other people. But life is not so simple. Not everybody who has some (serious) risk of sticking a knife into another person, can be locked away.
When managing people who are at some risk of using knives on others – say in a community setting – the issue is about dealing with co-causal factors which may precipitate a high risk situation. Note that risk is a probability of adverse outcome. So, managing those co-causal factors in a non-linear situation is of the utmost importance. All of that ‘risk management’ requires:
- A high degree of awareness.
- Good degrees of monitoring.
- Expertise in understanding what is observed.
- Coordination and communication.
So yes, if you have all of the above applied in a risk-management plan the probability of adverse outcome is likely to be significantly reduced.
- I have explored cause and causation from different perspectives. Whilst causes are usually the result of action, I have shown how inaction can become a ’cause’.
- Non-linearity is an important concept in complex situations.
- Whilst an event may not be predictable, it could be preventable.
Disclaimer & Guidance