Prophet of doom or moronlogist?
I am certainly not a prophet of anything! I’ve made a number of bold statements in a certain forum which have unfolded just as I expected.
Hold on – did I predict anything? I did not. None of my statements said ‘this is going to happen’. All my statements were probabilistic. I fully recognised that history might prove me wrong. Probability is just that, so if I said or implied something was likely – that was just a 51% chance; leaving a 49% chance against what I expected. Oh sure – that’s a very wide margin to be WRONG! But hold on again. History has been consistently on my side (as anyone reading all this will see) with my expectations even at 51% probability months in advance. This has beaten teams of teams of esteemed scientists and advisers. Does that mean I’m better than them? Of course not.
All it meant is that I’m using a very different methodology that doesn’t rely on raw science or statistics. I simply used the cheap and free methods of pattern analysis and non-linear causal analysis – which has nothing to do with pen, paper, or mathematics. This is not about analysing the virus! I’m not a virologist or epidemiologist. It’s about tracking the patterns of stupidity. That probably makes me a patternologist – or ‘moronologist‘, if you prefer!
In all of the following it is impossible to separate out the issues of health from what might be considered politics. I declare that my sole purposes and concern was the health of the nation and to avert disaster. It was appropriate that I refer to persons in positions of political power who I perceived as misguided.
On 2020-10-31 10:46 :17 I said.
>So now, what does it all mean today (31/10/2020)? We are where we are because:
1. – Our leaders relied on opinions based on lagging and unreliable data.
2. – Our leaders made political decisions that were lagging behind the curve of the virus’s assault.
3. – The slow reaction-time allowed the virus to bolt.
4. – Political decisions now – relying on scientists who are still lagging – are naturally late.
5. – The window of opportunity to contain the virus was lost.
6. – The cost to people’s lives and the economy is likely to be far more severe compared to if action was taken ‘ahead of the virus’.
7. – Failures of self-awareness and pattern-recognition are likely to be exploited by the virus in the future.
Expect full lockdown into January 2021 – though it’s likely to be dressed up as something else.<<
Some have already forgotten how we moved into ‘Tier4’ which was really Tier 5, which was a lockdown – albeit of a rather strange type.
In the last day someone in the forum said >>Having hope isn’t a bad trait in these trying times, and even if some of my ‘assumptions’ are wrong surely even you must admit that the more people become vaccinated that the more restrictions can be relaxed. <<
I won’t go into my full response because it really gets rather tiresome. In essence I observe the assumption that ‘hope shall conquer all’. Well, if you’re in a paddle boat fighting a tsunami, you may have hope but reality has a high probability of reaching you even before you’re aware of it. Did I say the person in the paddle boat will not survive? I did NOT! You could cross a busy street with your eyes totally shut, full of hope, and survive, but the overwhelming probability is that you will not.
Other things the ‘prophet of doom’ has said (and I’ll add to the following for my records):
The locking down was time critical. Early harsh lockdown would have caused less knock-on effects. But our leaders were busy listening to scientists instead of using common sense.
The second wave of the virus (among a probably several more to come) means that the next lock down will need to be longer and harder.
Collateral damage from the virus – that is deaths not caused by direct effects – will be the result of years of penny pinching on health services, and poor preparation for pandemics. Don’t blame the virus. Hold your leaders to account.
The point is that your masters will discover too late that this virus is here to stay. It isn’t ‘a virus’ as such – it is a class of viruses, that is mutating every day. Successive mutations will find our weaknesses and exploit them in various waves.
“What our masters have been doing is reacting to ‘the virus’s’ moves. I say this will be proved to be stupid. I assert that the correct strategy is pro-acting on the virus. How? Thinking about every weakness and plugging them ahead of the virus’s evolutionary curve. In other words our psycho-social evolution needs to be many steps ahead of the virus and other viruses to come.
Re-opening economies around now when lagging behind the virus – no cure, no treatment, no solution to indirect effects – is therefore likely to make the situation worse. Bad timing. (If you got this far, I apologise for wasting your time – as my opinions hold no weight at all – my qualifications are that of ‘street cleaner’.)!
Hope has ousted reality – as your leaders, unbeknownst to most of you, are rather more occupied with preventing global financial meltdown. In their folly they are mindlessly encouraging people do shop, travel and mingle – in a last ditch attempt to stimulate ‘the economy’ back to life.
I invite you to reconsider the re-opening of the UK economy. I ask that government stay always ahead of the virus’s curve of attack. To wait on the best scientific evidence is like waiting to think about the trajectory’ your bat to a fast moving cricket ball. By the time you think about it, your middle stumps are gone. Like a good batsman one needs to rely on experience, skill and common sense.
Should you opt to reverse course soon, the government will be laughed at. If you lock us all down again tight, and no second wave hits us, you will be laughed at even more. None of that should be a consideration.
Mr Johnson, I trust your memory is clear for when you underestimated this virus and was shaking everybodeee’s hand when you ought not to have been doing so. Kindly do not make the same sort of mistake, because this time around the loss of life and suffering from chronic disabilities are likely to be far worse. Focus less on fighting obesity and concentrate on something more S. M. A. R. T.
Lock the country down before 31st July2020, to avoid 2nd and 3rd waves coming together for November 2020. Alternatively – listen to your scientists – who have misled you and this Nation. I’ll have a copy of what I said from my time-stamped screenshot. I know your people are out here combing the media forums nationally with their software in the back ends.
To Mr Johnson, I say – your third wave has started and your scientists are not seeing it – obviously, because they are totally obsessed with tangible evidence. Unstick from hard evidence. Human beings can make sound decisions even when there is a lack of evidence. This happens regularly in the civil justice system. Avoid the currently unrecognised-by-scientists second and third waves, coinciding in Nov 2020. Why Nov 2020? Ahhhh… you’ll need to consult with mathematicians (which I am not) on Fourier Analysis, to understand how to avoid the 4th wave slamming us, in the peak of winter.
In the last 4 months I warned that science itself – handicapped by empiricism – is a risk factor in the fight against the virus. The world has an entrenched belief that ‘evidence’ – what can be seen – is of value and to be acted on. Well, now we’re fighting an ‘enemy’ we can’t see. The enemy exploits every weakness in our socio-economic and psychological systems of operation. It uses those weaknesses against us. So ‘we’ become magnifiers of the ‘killing potential’ of that enemy….
I say again, LOCKDOWN the country now- and keep it locked down tight – until successive waves of the virus have fallen to near zero. That does not mean forever. Let’s avoid spin-doctoring. Health is the economy. It is not health or the economy.
Some fool out there will still be stuck to an idea created in their own head (as if reality), that I’m interested in showing that I’m brighter than everyone else, even if I deny any of that. My mission in all this has been an exploration of human nature; its strengths and weaknesses. I was gathering evidence, on how the humans think, react, and evaluate complex issues. My responses were stimulated by what I saw up there. Those responses became evidence of my thoughts and a sort of diary. Morons assumed and turned it into fact, that I was there to prove something. I’m not posting their insulting and abusive remarks but I’ll summarise some themes:
- The commonest were assertions that I was either mad or using some sort of illegal drugs – and that I needed ‘help’.
- Next were jibes about what they assumed was my sense ‘self-importance’, arrogance etc.
- Interests in my net worth. (What that has to do with it; I am still totally befuddled).
- A fair percentage went ‘What are you trying to say?’ (or something similar), when all that I wrote was in quite proper English and correct for syntax. On occasions I felt I was speaking a foreign language.
The themes that weren’t there were:
- Exploration of what I said.
- A willingness to seek new information and methods of analysis.
- Seeking of new evidence.
So – overall it has taken up a lot of time but that investment delivered handsomely the kinds of evidence I was looking for. Sorry, I’m not interested in making money from any of that. So calm down and take a flying leap!
Disclaimer & Guidance