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Some will be afflicted by the Semmelweis Reflex to immediately reject this post and linked reports. Others will bawl, “I could be run over by a bus – so what?

Well, read this excerpt first if you’re still here – from Nature Journal 17th Aug 2022: Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare.

Over the next century, large-scale volcanic eruptions are hundreds of times more likely to occur than are asteroid and comet impacts, put together. The climatic impact of these events is comparable, yet the response is vastly different. ‘Planetary defence’ receives hundreds of millions of dollars in funding each year, and has several global agencies devoted to it.

As I’ve said so many times before:

  1. Risk is a probability of adverse outcome.
  2. The worst risks are the ones you don’t know about or underestimate.

For those who were too lazy or afraid to click the link above read this excerpt from the article:

The world is woefully unprepared for such an event. The Tongan eruption should be a wake-up call. Recent data from ice cores suggest that the probability of an eruption with a magnitude of 7 (10 or 100 times larger than Tonga) or greater this century is 1 in 6.

Uneducated interruption

Stupid: Rubbish! This is you scaremongering again with your doom and gloom!

CW: Have you read the article?

Stupid: No.

CW: Are you aware of the New Orleans disaster, Fukoshima disaster, and how the world was told to prepare for a COVID type pandemic in 2015?

Stupid: I’m not a feeder on doom and gloom stories.

CW: So you haven’t studied details of the above disasters?

Stupid: No.

CW: What do you know about disaster preparation for random chaotic events?

Stupid: …ummm…erhh… nothing.

CW: Good – well shut up! In fact, I’m going to shut you up right now! Poof! You’re gone.

Chrysst! Can I write my blog in peace? Moving on.

Those who need to learn more can think  (or not) about stuff I’ve written on risk from April 2022.

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