Articles for tag: tail risk, risk, cost, catastrophic, impact, lessons, stupidity, tail, lives, consequences, finance, probaility, history

12 January 2025

Politics Business & Finance Humanities

Fires in Los Angeles compels review of tail risk

The tranquillity of a sunny afternoon can quickly transform into a scene of chaos when a wildfire erupts, engulfing homes and livelihoods in its path. Recent events, such as the devastating fires in Los Angeles, serve as stark reminders of the ever-present danger of tail risk. While cutting costs might seem prudent in the short ...

22 May 2021

Business & Finance Health Humanities

Who hasn’t got Asperger’s?

If someone declares that they have a mental disorder, most other people know that they’re to respond with sympathy. Of course, I expect to hear ‘Not necessarily‘, ‘It depends‘, and ‘not everybody‘ etc etc. Well stuff it – when anybody declares that they have depression, I know the reactions I see. Nobody has authority over ...

22 December 2019

Business & Finance

What exactly is money?

I’ve explored money before. Some say, “Everybody knows what money is.. so why ask stupid questions about it?” For simpletons, money is coin or cash in hand, or credit in the bank – end off. If that’s you, then kindly depart now. This is not a tutorial on money or how to make money. If ...

For those who want to spend their life understanding

The Analysis Tool (also called REPL) – is JavaScript code used by Claude.ai to perform the thermal calculations and generate the data. This was invoked using the repl command.

React Component – This is the visualization code Claude.ai created as an artifact using React and the Recharts library to display the temperature profiles. This was created with the identifier “temp-profile” and used the artifact type “application/vnd.ant.react”.

It now all makes perfect sense – right? 🤣😂

import React from 'react';
import { LineChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, Legend, ResponsiveContainer } from 'recharts';

const TempProfile = () => {
  const [data, setData] = React.useState([]);

  React.useEffect(() => {
    // Using properties from Table 3
    const albumenFraction = 0.58;
    const shellFraction = 0.11;
    const yolkFraction = 1 - albumenFraction - shellFraction;
    
    const avgSpecificHeat = 
        albumenFraction * 3935 +
        yolkFraction * 3266 +
        shellFraction * 888;
    
    const eggMass = 0.06;
    const eggRadius = 0.025;
    const eggSurfaceArea = 4 * Math.PI * Math.pow(eggRadius, 2);
    
    const timePoints = [];
    const fridgeTemps = [];
    const eggTemps = [];
    const timeStep = 1;
    const totalTime = 7 * 60;
    
    for (let t = 0; t <= totalTime; t += timeStep) {
      let fridgeTemp;
      if (t <= 20) {
        fridgeTemp = 4 + (10 - 4) * (t / 20);
      } else {
        fridgeTemp = 4 + (10 - 4) * Math.exp(-0.01 * (t - 20));
      }
      
      const h = 10;
      const tempDiff = fridgeTemp - (eggTemps.length > 0 ? eggTemps[eggTemps.length - 1] : 4);
      const heatTransfer = h * eggSurfaceArea * tempDiff * timeStep;
      const tempChange = heatTransfer / (eggMass * avgSpecificHeat);
      
      const newEggTemp = (eggTemps.length > 0 ? eggTemps[eggTemps.length - 1] : 4) + tempChange;
      
      timePoints.push(t);
      fridgeTemps.push(fridgeTemp);
      eggTemps.push(newEggTemp);
    }
    
    const chartData = timePoints.map((t, i) => ({
      time: Math.round(t / 60 * 10) / 10,  // Convert to minutes with 1 decimal
      fridgeTemp: Math.round(fridgeTemps[i] * 1000) / 1000,
      eggTemp: Math.round(eggTemps[i] * 1000) / 1000
    }));
    
    // Sample every 3rd point to reduce data size
    setData(chartData.filter((_, i) => i % 3 === 0));
  }, []);

  return (
    <div className="w-full h-96 p-4">
      <ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
        <LineChart data={data}>
          <CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" />
          <XAxis 
            label={{ value: 'Time (minutes)', position: 'bottom', offset: 0 }}
            dataKey="time"
          />
          <YAxis
            label={{ value: 'Temperature (°C)', angle: -90, position: 'insideLeft' }}
            domain={[3, 11]}
          />
          <Tooltip />
          <Legend />
          <Line 
            type="monotone" 
            dataKey="fridgeTemp" 
            stroke="#8884d8" 
            name="Fridge Temperature"
            dot={false}
          />
          <Line 
            type="monotone" 
            dataKey="eggTemp" 
            stroke="#82ca9d" 
            name="Egg Temperature"
            dot={false}
          />
        </LineChart>
      </ResponsiveContainer>
    </div>
  );
};

export default TempProfile;