Articles for tag: consequences, finance, probaility, history, tail risk, risk, cost, catastrophic, impact, lessons, stupidity, tail, lives

12 January 2025

Politics Business & Finance Humanities

Fires in Los Angeles compels review of tail risk

The tranquillity of a sunny afternoon can quickly transform into a scene of chaos when a wildfire erupts, engulfing homes and livelihoods in its path. Recent events, such as the devastating fires in Los Angeles, serve as stark reminders of the ever-present danger of tail risk. While cutting costs might seem prudent in the short ...

3 January 2024

Who was Alan Turing and why should you care

This post will not give a full biography of Alan Turing (23 June 1912 – 7 June 1954). For more on Turing head to Wikipedia. I will be summarising what’s important to me. For a full biography read the book Alan Turing: The Enigma or the YouTube vid below (27 min). The Imitation Game – ...

3 January 2024

Why we do not speak German

In this post I will focus on why I do not speak German – and most in the West continues to speak English. It is about history – and tough if you have have a dog to bathe, plants to water and Instagram to check on. Did I say you have to read this now? ...

24 July 2023

Humanities Science & Medicine

The Great Dying and the great creation

Calm down – this is not about suicide. Jeez! Recently I came across by accident the BBC iPLAYER Series ‘Earth’. The first episode starts off with events of the Permian Period – the Great Dying – 300 to 252 million years ago. This was news to me! How? Early towards new knowledge When I was ...

14 July 2020

Time wasting junk

Over the last 2 weeks I’ve been on an e-cleaning binge! That means I’ve been sorting out loads of electronic files of all types and cleaning up electronic messages. Did I say ‘electronic messages‘? Just checking. Yes – I did! Some fool wants to know what does ‘electronic messages’ mean. Chrysst! People don’t know what ...

For those who want to spend their life understanding

The Analysis Tool (also called REPL) – is JavaScript code used by Claude.ai to perform the thermal calculations and generate the data. This was invoked using the repl command.

React Component – This is the visualization code Claude.ai created as an artifact using React and the Recharts library to display the temperature profiles. This was created with the identifier “temp-profile” and used the artifact type “application/vnd.ant.react”.

It now all makes perfect sense – right? 🤣😂

import React from 'react';
import { LineChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, Legend, ResponsiveContainer } from 'recharts';

const TempProfile = () => {
  const [data, setData] = React.useState([]);

  React.useEffect(() => {
    // Using properties from Table 3
    const albumenFraction = 0.58;
    const shellFraction = 0.11;
    const yolkFraction = 1 - albumenFraction - shellFraction;
    
    const avgSpecificHeat = 
        albumenFraction * 3935 +
        yolkFraction * 3266 +
        shellFraction * 888;
    
    const eggMass = 0.06;
    const eggRadius = 0.025;
    const eggSurfaceArea = 4 * Math.PI * Math.pow(eggRadius, 2);
    
    const timePoints = [];
    const fridgeTemps = [];
    const eggTemps = [];
    const timeStep = 1;
    const totalTime = 7 * 60;
    
    for (let t = 0; t <= totalTime; t += timeStep) {
      let fridgeTemp;
      if (t <= 20) {
        fridgeTemp = 4 + (10 - 4) * (t / 20);
      } else {
        fridgeTemp = 4 + (10 - 4) * Math.exp(-0.01 * (t - 20));
      }
      
      const h = 10;
      const tempDiff = fridgeTemp - (eggTemps.length > 0 ? eggTemps[eggTemps.length - 1] : 4);
      const heatTransfer = h * eggSurfaceArea * tempDiff * timeStep;
      const tempChange = heatTransfer / (eggMass * avgSpecificHeat);
      
      const newEggTemp = (eggTemps.length > 0 ? eggTemps[eggTemps.length - 1] : 4) + tempChange;
      
      timePoints.push(t);
      fridgeTemps.push(fridgeTemp);
      eggTemps.push(newEggTemp);
    }
    
    const chartData = timePoints.map((t, i) => ({
      time: Math.round(t / 60 * 10) / 10,  // Convert to minutes with 1 decimal
      fridgeTemp: Math.round(fridgeTemps[i] * 1000) / 1000,
      eggTemp: Math.round(eggTemps[i] * 1000) / 1000
    }));
    
    // Sample every 3rd point to reduce data size
    setData(chartData.filter((_, i) => i % 3 === 0));
  }, []);

  return (
    <div className="w-full h-96 p-4">
      <ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
        <LineChart data={data}>
          <CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" />
          <XAxis 
            label={{ value: 'Time (minutes)', position: 'bottom', offset: 0 }}
            dataKey="time"
          />
          <YAxis
            label={{ value: 'Temperature (°C)', angle: -90, position: 'insideLeft' }}
            domain={[3, 11]}
          />
          <Tooltip />
          <Legend />
          <Line 
            type="monotone" 
            dataKey="fridgeTemp" 
            stroke="#8884d8" 
            name="Fridge Temperature"
            dot={false}
          />
          <Line 
            type="monotone" 
            dataKey="eggTemp" 
            stroke="#82ca9d" 
            name="Egg Temperature"
            dot={false}
          />
        </LineChart>
      </ResponsiveContainer>
    </div>
  );
};

export default TempProfile;